Agriculture: Twenty Years from Now...

Following is a summary of my remarks in an “Agri Panel” at the Global Entrepreneurship Summit earlier today, in response to the question, “What do you think will be game-changing about how we think about agriculture, twenty years from now?”

Soon after the panel moderator sent me this very interesting question a couple of days ago, the first thing I did was to post this question on Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn to crowdsource thoughts from my friends. There were nearly two hundred unique responses! They added up to twenty pages of text, without counting the number of pages in the links I received. Overwhelming, isn’t it?

All I am doing now is to simply synthesize those inputs and share with you J

The future of any system is shaped the current aspirations of the key stakeholders. Let’s take a look at the aspirations of the consumers, producers and the society at large…

Consumers want sufficient quantity of food (because we would be nearly nine billion by then, and on average richer than today), that is tasty (although, a friend did say in lighter vein, “since we will have nano-bots in our blood streams, and since our memories could be uploaded on to cloud, maybe we don’t need food and therefore no agriculture; we probably just need some electricity, or batteries, or just a few hours of exposure to sun ;-), is safe (you are all consumers here, don’t you agree that harmful chemicals in food is your topmost concern?), nutritious (scientists say that most of the world is suffering from invisible hunger), and all of these at reasonable prices!     

Farmers want higher incomes (as you know, per capita income of farmers around the world, especially in emerging economies, is far lower than the general per capita) with lower risk (weather and disease related production risks, price volatility). Their labour deserves more dignity (as it is, hardly any youth from the next generation wants to be a farmer) and they deserve better quality life (as in, the conveniences and comforts that are common in urban settings).  

Society at large would like agriculture to conserve natural resources (water and top soil, for example) and where possible, actually renew them. Agriculture needs to be resilient to climate change (the summer rains and warm winters, extreme climate episodes like heavy downpours on one hand and droughts on the other, etc), and again, where possible, positively impact climate change (sequester carbon, minimize greenhouse gas emissions etc).

An interplay of these different - at times conflicting - aspirations gives rise to three distinct scenarios, all of which will co-exist in twenty years. Let me label them: Farms as Factories, Homes as Farms, and Back to Basics!

Farms as Factories: By using the metaphor of factories, all I am saying is that the consistent quality of output will be produced, crop after crop, by leveraging the evolving technologies – both farming (like seed, nutrients, farm-equipment, agronomy practices etc) and digital (IoT, block chain, hyper-spectral imaging, GPS / GIS etc). A friend called them, “hardware, software, and liveware”). Another friend went to the extent of visualising a self-managing seed! These seeds will analyse the experienced conditions like soil, weather, water etc and invoke the necessary embedded features that would maximize the yield and quality. This may sound like fantasy today, but those of you who are familiar with experiments on seeds with multiple layers of coating in the past may very well say this could be a reality in twenty years!

Homes as Farms: I am sure, you have heard of vertical farming, balcony farming, kitchen gardens and such other names. Once supply chains are established to supply DIY-type mini production units, seeds, nutrients etc to the households, this phenomenon will expand more rapidly. This food is safe without any doubt in the consumer mind, and zero carbon miles! Business Models are also in the works for another kind of service. If you are not adventurous enough to grow crops in your backyard yourself, you can simply let out the space to Service Providers who can grow crops on a BOO model. Besides experts growing the crops in this model, a colony-level kitchen garden is more optimal than a household level garden. And a third model, which is not a ‘home-as-farm’ strictly speaking, is a partnership between a group of, say, five thousand, consumers and a community of, say, five hundred farmers. I know of several such partnerships across cities, built as WhatsApp Groups integrating even the e-commerce functionality.       

Back to Basics: Much of today’s ills of agriculture are due to chemical-intensive mono-cropping paradigm. A more sustainable future scenario would be an integrated farming system consisting of polyculture, permaculture, organic compost, bee-keeping, animal husbandry, renewable energy. In fact, I already see some farms where solar energy brings larger revenue than the conventional crops.  

As the panel went forward, there were other questions, but for now I am wrapping up this post without covering them.

As always, comments are most welcome J This is a live and lively topic! 

Scaling-up Sustainability Solutions

This blog-post is built around my talk at the WBCSD Annual Meeting held in Chennai last month.

The Background:

2015 was a year of ambition that saw the adoption of the historic Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). World leaders committed to building an inclusive and thriving low carbon economy, and the SDGs provide us with an all-encompassing agenda for developing our societies while addressing the critical issues of poverty, inequality and environmental degradation. This unprecedented framework for action calls upon each of us to contribute, and forward-looking companies are translating ambition to implementation at scale.

Among other things, the event showcased how companies can capitalize on the new opportunities and economic incentives while contributing to the SDGs, thanks to WBCSD business solutions that align to their strategy and operations. The session in which I spoke zoomed in on how corporate leadership has scaled up solutions in India, and how this can be applied around the world. I shared ITC’s experiences in this regard.

Scale at which ITC operates:

Over the years, ITC has designed and implemented several large-scale programmes to create sustainable livelihoods, enrich the environment and address the challenges of climate change. I illustrate the scale using a couple of examples…

ITC’s soil & moisture conservation programme promotes local management of water resources by facilitating community-based participation in planning and executing watershed projects. Nearly 8,000 water harvesting structures have been constructed under this initiative, covering a total area of about 650,000 acres. It’s difficult to visualise that scale, and for a lay-person anything beyond the sight of a naked eye is big! It may be easier, if I use the analogy of Geneva Lake, a large water body most of the audience present must’ve seen; then imagine the whole city of Geneva of which this large lake is a small part. The area covered by ITC through the soil & moisture conservation intervention is 160 times the size of Geneva city! Yes, a hundred and sixty times.

ITC’s Farm & Social Forestry programmes have greened more than 560,000 acres through tree plantations by enabling financial, technical and marketing support to small and marginal farmers. Again, this acreage by itself may not make sense, other than appearing as some large number. Let me add, that those trees have sequestered more than 5,000 kilo tonnes of CO2, which is equivalent to keeping as many as one million diesel cars off the road, based on specific emission factors! Yes, a million cars.

The ITC e-Choupal initiative is a powerful example of a development model that delivers large-scale societal value by co-creating rural markets with local communities. With a judicious blend of click & mortar capabilities, ITC e-Choupal has triggered a virtuous cycle of higher productivity, higher incomes, and enhanced capacity of farmer risk management, larger investments and higher quality and productivity. These services reach out to some four million farmers. Again, just to visualise the scale, may I say that every Indian farmer could be brought into such a network, with not more than thirty companies operating at this scale.

All these, while ITC’s revenue has grown tenfold over the last twenty years! Profits grew 33 times and the Total Shareholder Returns grew at a CAGR of over 23%

For more details do read the GRI - G4 compliant, comprehensive, Sustainability Report of ITC.

The How of This Scale:

Essentially a three-dimensional approach. Focus. Outcome Orientation. Innovation.

Focus:

Imagine a Venn Diagram. The focus of our efforts is on those areas that converge from three angles. First, the development challenges that matter to the nation. Second, those interventions that create enduring value for our stakeholder communities. As many as 250,000 people participated directly in a “Needs & Priorities Assessment” exercise in the PRA format, earlier this year. Third, those initiatives where our interventions can multiply the impact significantly by virtue of their touch-points with our value chains or their geographical vicinities.

The resultant key focus areas, viz. livelihoods for the poor, sanitation, gender equality, vocational skills, education, and climate action mirror the important global SDGs too.

For a deeper understanding, you can browse through ITC’s CSR Policy and Sustainability Policies.

Outcome Orientation:

Often, sustainability interventions are designed as point solutions. They do make a difference, but not at scale. For example, provision of information or knowledge to small holder farmers. This is certainly one component of the services provided by ITC e-Choupal. While this is a necessary condition, this won’t, by itself, raise their incomes. The information and knowledge need to be often translated to investments on the farm. But, given the inherent risk associated with farming, farmers hesitate to make those investments. This is where our livestock and such other interventions that bring supplementary incomes come into play, which enhance the risk bearing ability of the farmers. Once the intent to invest is there, the next challenge is gaining access to the recommended inputs, credit, crop insurance, farm machinery etc. The intensity of agriculture has a bearing on natural resources like water and top soil. Without a community effort, individual farmers get trapped in the tragedy of commons and exhaust these resources, and face an unsustainable future. This is where our soil & moisture conservation interventions come into play. And so on…

Thus, commitment to the eventual outcomes - and doing whatever is necessary as well as sufficient - only can demonstrate the impact and involve the communities on larger scale.

This integrated approach of ITC and the impact is well documented in a report published by APAARI.

Outcome is not a static target but a dynamic goal as the communities evolve. New goals get set on an ongoing basis to make the programmes contemporary and strengthen their enduring relevance. For example, in the sixteen years since the first e-Choupal was rolled out, the model is in its fourth version now!

Innovation:

Investment in sustainability initiatives at this scale cannot be sustained by merely keeping a portion of the profits aside. With our Chairman, Mr Deveshwar articulating the paradigm of “responsible competitiveness” for growth, the entrepreneurial energies of the whole organisation are harnessed to innovate business models that improve business competitiveness while creating sustainable livelihoods and enriching environment.

“Making Markets Work for Green GDP and Sustainable Livelihoods” is the theme of one of his speeches at ITC’s Annual Shareholders Meeting.

More importantly, co-creating solutions together with the participating communities makes the innovations relevant. This approach also synergises the complementary strengths of the multiple stakeholders, and helps execute the programmes at scale. Call it a PPPP – Public Private People Partnership – approach, if you will…