Showing posts with label Derivatives. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Derivatives. Show all posts

Saturday, 26 September 2015

Nuances of the Agricultural Value Chains in India

Earlier this week, I gave a talk on the subject in a Workshop of Development Professionals. One of the participants prepared this summary:

Drawing upon his extensive experience of setting up and managing businesses based on value chains in agricultural commodities, Sivakumar took off from where the previous speaker left.  He said that he would reconcile the two seemingly conflicting points of views brought up in the previous session. On one hand, farmers as well as consumers feel that the intermediaries in the value chain are getting all the cream at their expense. The other was the large body of research which says that there is no evidence to conclude that middlemen in any specific commodity sector are making any more returns than justified by the value they add through capital they invest, the costs they incur and the risks they take. Once he had done that, he said, he would propose a sort of “tool kit” that the participants could use to address the inefficiencies in the value chains.

He said that the situation in India was characterized by small ticket size, large geographic dispersion, and lack of homogeneity on both the producer and the consumer end. To reach the agri produce to appropriate buyers located elsewhere, seeking products at different times, and in different form, required the middlemen to discover mechanisms such as larger than required risk cover, substituting skills for instruments and local knowledge for things like credit rating or quality testing or bank reach. They then instituted less than "global optimal" solutions. The research on market efficiency in whichever commodity focussed on "local" connections between two subsequent legs of a value chain and these were competitively shaped leading to the conclusion about market efficiency. Yet, from the point of view of global marketplace, Indian value chains were very inefficient since the summation of local optimal efficiencies did not add up to a global optimum for the whole value chain because of the non-value adding costs and unwarranted risks. This explained the simultaneous existence of "efficient markets" as tested by economists at micro level with gross inefficiencies in aggregate.
The adverse impact of the inefficiency – in terms of higher costs and risks – have been pushed to the weakest link in the chain, namely, the small farmer! As a result, the producer’s share of a consumer rupee remained low. Also, neither the full market opportunity from the evolving consumer preferences, nor the full production potential of India’s rich agro-climatic conditions have been realised.   

He therefore suggested that any work to improve the lot of small farmers cannot be a “point” solution; interventions are needed to improve efficiencies of the value chains as a whole, by transferring the costs and the risks to the most capable players along the chain.
Citing his own experience in setting up ITC e-Choupals, he laid out an approach to build the "tool kit". He then talked of two points that move along the value chain: the first is related to how much a producer would be willing to go down the value chain to reach out to the consumer and the other as to how much a consumer would be willing to go up towards production side. For the former, he talked of producers willing to push their “value offer points” by reaching out to the consumers in terms of vendor managed inventory. For the latter, he talked of contract farming as an illustration of consumer extending the “order penetration point” up the stream in the value chain.

By studying what he called the “transaction velocity” metrics, he said it would be possible to identify the non-value adding transactions in a value chain and then eliminate them through suitable interventions. ITC e-Choupals, for example, eliminated the physical movement of goods from farmers to APMC and then from there to the factories through competitive price discovery at farmer’s doorstep. Through different business models, ITC reaches out to 70000 villages in 220 districts across 16 states of the country giving them a competitive edge in sourcing.
Next he talked of “identity preservation” of the product along the value chain to mix & match the heterogeneity of production to cater to the heterogeneity in demand. Giving an example, he said there were 16 major wheat types grown in the country and 7 major atta types preferred by the consumers in different regions of the country. By setting up suitable sourcing, storage, and movement systems – both physical and information flow – to ensure that right wheat went to right mills and the right atta to market, ITC could capture and retain a huge market share in the Rs 5000 cr branded atta market.

Third he talked of “intensity of information” embedded in the products and using it for the purpose of deriving extra value for the producers. This comprised things like organic produce, responsible produce, IPM produced stuff etc. for which some segments of consumers are willing to pay more if there is evidence of the claim of the produce being what it claims to be.
Fourth he talked about moving from backyard production to collective production systems, wherever “mass production to production by masses” ratios are favourable. He gave the example of small animal holders coming together for collective dairy farming.

He strongly recommended that it would be more productive for new entrants as well – irrespective of their size of operations – to start thinking in terms of steps to move towards a “global optimum” in their value chains rather than either engaging in a zero sum game of deriving more value by reducing someone else's earning or by competing within the existing system alone.    

Saturday, 28 February 2015

Union Budget 2015: Agriculture


“By the time of the 75th year of Indian independence, …India (has to) become a prosperous country and a responsible global power… Madam Speaker, I am mindful of the five major challenges I have to reckon with. Firstly, Agricultural incomes are under stress…” said the Finance Minister in his speech today.

His response to this rightly identified foremost challenge is embedded in three policy statements made in the budget, two sets of budget allocations, and some hope.

The Policy Statements:

1.      “I intend this year to work with the States, in NITI, for the creation of a Unified National Agriculture Market”, promised the FM. Such a unified market has the potential to transfer a larger share of the consumer price to the farmer. When the Economic Survey asserts, “If persuasion fails, it may be necessary to see what center can do, taking account of the allocation of subjects under the Constitution of India”, one sees some hope in converting this potential into reality.

2.      “I propose to merge the Forward Markets Commission with SEBI to strengthen regulation of commodity forward markets”, said the FM. Hopefully, this will ensure dusting the Parliamentary Standing Committee’s Report on the Forward Contracts (Regulation) Amendment Bill 2010, and introduction of Options and other forward looking instruments.

3.      “We need to cut the subsidies leakages, not subsidies themselves” declared the FM. Indeed subsidies are needed for the poor; what we need is a well-targeted system for subsidy delivery. For, these leakages distort the market and act as disincentive to private investments in the sector. As much as 42% of the grain distributed in the Public Distribution System leaks back into the open market per a study. The JAM trinity can help in Direct Transfer of such Benefits, minimize distortion and nurture vibrant markets.

The Budget Allocations:

1.      Rs 100,000 Crores is allocated to Rural Infrastructure Development Fund, and various Long & Short Term Rural Credit Funds. This will surely raise the investment capacity of the farmer and step up the Gross Capital Formation in the sector, besides expanding the much-needed rural infrastructure.  

2.      Funds already allocated to the ‘Deen Dayal Upadhyay Gramin Kaushal Yojana’ and the Scholarships and Loans promised under the ‘Pradhan Mantri Vidya Lakshmi Karyakram’, will enhance the employability of rural youth in non-farm jobs. This will improve the ratio of arable land available per agri worker, which is otherwise deteriorating to unviable and unsustainable levels.

The Hope:

The Economic Survey reiterated the importance of agricultural research, extension, irrigation, mechanisation etc as the key drivers of growth of the sector. Hopefully, the funds allotted under different Government schemes, such as Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana, the National Food Security Mission, the Mission for Integrated Development of Horticulture, the Soil Health Card Scheme, the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana etc, are channeled to appropriately technologise our farming to deal with the extreme weather variations which have now become the norm. Many of these schemes have been folded into the new Krishionnati Yojana, and the funding has been curtailed, with the FM expressing hope that the States will put in the required money from the higher allocations they now have from the 14th Finance Commission formula. I hope that hope is not belied...

It’s only then that the Amrut Mahotsav of our independence will be sweet!      

Tuesday, 5 August 2014

Commodity Options: New-age MSP mechanism that can trigger a Rainbow Revolution


Options can certainly be a win-win instrument not only to hedge farmers’ risk effectively, but also by replacing expensive subsidies with an efficient market-based mechanism.

A new future for Indian farmers dawned in 1960s with the Green Revolution. Another such turning point is emerging today, with an opportunity to craft the next leap for Indian agriculture. An instrument that played a pivotal role in translating the green revolution technologies into increased food production was the Minimum Support Price (MSP) assured to farmers. Institutions such as Food Corporation of India executed this instrument, complementing the research and extension services rendered by the ICAR-led public research system.

That was half a century ago. Rapid globalization since then, coupled with increasing purchasing power, have made today’s consumers seek a variety of food products, such as vegetables, fruits, meat, and milk, going beyond the green revolution crops, namely, rice and wheat. For the farmer, this requires a paradigm shift to bring consumer-preferred traits into crops, in addition to further improvements in productivity. This implies new risks for the farmers, which cannot be dealt with by the MSP that covers only a few commodities in a few states. 
If the cost of implementing MSP in two crops and three-and-a-half states itself is so taxing on the exchequer, one can only imagine the massive resources that would be required to support at least a dozen crops spread across not less than 15 states. A new “Rainbow Revolution” is now required to take the baton from a tiring Green Revolution. Technology already exists for such a revolution; we just need a new MSP-like instrument that can cover many more crops and several states. Instead of relying on a government-administered subsidy alone, a more efficient mechanism would be to create a market-based instrument as also build and strengthen institutions that can take such an instrument to the farmers. Market-based instruments will reduce the need for the state to engage in commodity operations directly, yet giving government the power to intervene and influence prices in the public interest by participating in such a market whenever required.

Commodity derivative markets offer such an instrument. Even though there are opponents to derivatives such as futures and options, the fact remains that they provide the best safeguards to farmers, simultaneously facilitating a swifter alignment of production with demand. Today, farmers make planting choices based on the prices received for previous season’s crops. There couldn’t be a more inefficient way! Derivatives open up new possibilities for farmers by assuring them of a post-harvest price before they take a decision on what to sow.
Trading in futures is currently permitted, but it doesn’t really help the farmers manage their risk, as it ties them down with an obligation to deliver at the contracted price, even if the market moves up after harvest. Farmers are looking for an MSP-like instrument, where they are assured of a minimum price before planting a crop, and still have the choice of taking advantage of the market if prices go up later. Options provide such flexibility. By buying a put option, the farmer gets a right to sell at a pre-determined future price, but without any obligation to deliver if the market moves up. This assurance not only provides the best hedging solution to farmers, but also builds their capacity to invest in productivity-enhancing and quality-improving technology and practices, in turn raising production and containing inflation without bringing farmer incomes down.

To make this happen, the Forward Contacts (Regulation) Act needs reform to permit “options”. The high premia typically charged for options can discourage farmers from extensively participating in the derivatives market. This can be dealt with by permitting exotic derivatives like caps and collars. The government could also step in to popularize the use of options for hedging or subsidize the premia since that would entail far less an outgo than direct subsidies (see box). Given the small lot sizes of farmers, as well as the complexities involved in operating in the derivative markets, it is also important to recognize “aggregators” under the Act who could offer the simpler “options-embedded Over the Counter (OTC) contracts” to farmers.
Options can certainly be a win-win instrument not only to hedge farmers’ risk effectively, but also by replacing expensive subsidies with an efficient market-based mechanism. Do we really have a better option than permitting “options” to achieve a rainbow revolution?

Farmers Hedging in Mexico
After joining the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1994, the Mexico government moved to liberalize the agricultural sector. The government designed a sustainable programme of guaranteed minimum price through the use of options to transfer risk from growers to international markets. The Support Services for Agricultural Marketing Agency (ASERCA), a decentralized body providing commercial support to farmers, offered the farmers a chance to participate for a fixed fee in a programme guaranteeing minimum cotton price. ASERCA offered a guaranteed price and hedged its own risk by using the fee to purchase a put option on the New York Cotton Exchange (now ICE Futures US). The put option gave ASERCA the right to sell cotton on a specific future date at pre-specified price ( that is, strike price).
When the prices dropped, ASERCA paid farmers the difference between the New York price at harvest and a minimum price (equivalent to the payoff value of put option). If prices rose instead, ASERCA made no payment to farmers. By paying a fee and participating in the programme, a farmer purchased insurance against a drop in prices below a certain level. ASERCA, in effect, acted as an intermediary between producers and commodity brokers. The Mexican government, through ASERCA, subsidized 100% of the premium payment in 1994.
Source: Innovative Agricultural Insurance Products and Schemes (by Kang, M. G.)